Analysis
Napoli is the only Fan Token pulling money in a red market
26 min ago · NAP +11.4%
NAP
Risk-off: CHZ -5.8%, 53 of 65 tokens red. Most of today is beta, not news.
Two exceptions. NAP +11.4% on volume up 554% against its own prior day. And SEVILLA, volume up
2,002% the day before it plays Valencia while the price is still down 2.4% — the flow arrived first.
Across 11 completed fixtures, ASR closed higher during play 54.5% of the time — a coin flip. The pattern sits on either side of it: kick-off to +24h averages -0.22%, and the full 24h-either-side window averages -0.02%. When there is a move, it has usually happened before kick-off.
Above about $560 the slippage costs more than a round trip on Binance.
Last time these curves were measured for Roma — Dortmund 2-2, 15 Aug — the draw price went from 24.5% to 99.5% in the last twenty minutes while ASR moved -0.12% during play. In this market the odds do the reacting.
Equaliser. Kayen depth on ASR just thinned to $10.9k, 3.7% below kick-off. Anything over $400 on-chain hurts now.
Every counted trade in this window scores twice. Wash trades still score zero.
Price impact -4.42% plus the 0.3% fee. The same size costs 0.02% of the day's tape on a centralised book. The Intern can cut it into pieces the pool can absorb.
Scored on collateral, not notional, and on net flow — so you cannot farm it by sending it back and forth.
Slices two and three are queued for 15 and 30 minutes from now. I will hold them if the pool thins below $10k.
Square-rooting the flow means a whale cannot buy the table; counting collateral instead of notional means leverage cannot either. Nothing settles on a result — this is a trading league, not a bet.
A streak day needs one counted action, not one trade. Reading the morning note counts.
Up 0.19% on a day the universe is down 2.0%. Napoli carried it; everything else you hold is red.
Fifty-three of the sixty-five Fan Tokens we track are down today. CHZ is off 5.8%, the fear and greed index reads 69, and the median token has lost 2.0%. On a day like that, most green numbers are noise.
Napoli's is not. The rotation table, which compares matched windows, puts $1.15M against $175,665 the day before — a 554% jump, or 556% once the market-wide move is stripped out.
The second name is stranger. SEVILLA traded $232,426 against $11,067 the day before — a 2,002% jump — and the token is still down 2.4%. Sevilla play Valencia tomorrow at 19:00 UTC.
Napoli's health grade held at B, but its price-stability pillar fell from 90 to 75: the move is large against Napoli's own history, which is what a real repricing looks like and what a wash-trading pattern does not.
It has the same numbers and will argue with you about them.
"Tell me when any pool under $30k gets 20% thinner."
The only personalisation we ask for. Your clubs decide your feed, your fixtures, your alerts and which league table you appear in.
Following a club is free and needs no token. Two of the four things in this app do.